
U.S. President Trump announced that a 50% import tariff will be imposed on Brazilian goods starting from August 1st. Although the specific list has not yet been released, Brazil's tilapia industry has fallen into panic. As the fifth-largest supplier of white fish to the United States, Brazil's exports of tilapia and related products to the U.S. reached $59 million in 2024, and surged 62% year-on-year to $32 million in the first five months of 2025. If the new tariffs cover tilapia categories (HS 030431, 030323, etc.), Brazilian enterprises will face a cliff-like drop in export competitiveness.
Currently, the FOB price of Brazilian tilapia is about $2.7 - $2.9 per kilogram. A 50% tariff will push the CIF price in the United States to over $4 per kilogram, which is much higher than the quotations from competitors such as Vietnam and Colombia. U.S. importers have begun to evaluate alternative procurement plans, and some contracts are facing renegotiation or termination. The Brazilian Aquaculture Association warned that the U.S. market accounts for 89% of the country's farmed fish exports, with tilapia accounting for the highest proportion, and the tariff impact may directly lead to the shrinkage of the industrial chain.
This tariff adjustment comes at a time of intense competition in the international tilapia market. Vietnam has rapidly expanded its tilapia production capacity relying on its basa fish processing foundation, with export volume surging 138% year-on-year in 2024; Indonesia, with an annual output of 1.61 million tons, is closely chasing China. Analysts pointed out that if Brazilian exports are frustrated, U.S. buyers may further tilt towards Southeast Asia, accelerating the reorganization of the global supply chain.
Industry observers believe that the key lies in whether the Brazilian government can strive for exemption through diplomatic negotiations. At the same time, Chinese tilapia enterprises are closely monitoring the development of the situation - despite the threat of U.S. tariffs, their complete industrial chain still enables them to maintain cost advantages. This trade shock triggered by political games...
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