South China has been sweltering under sustained high temperatures since late June, exposing tilapia stocks to widespread disease risks. Meanwhile, trade performance has further deteriorated and export margins keep shrinking, sounding the alarm for this year’s entire tilapia industry.

Multiple media outlets recently reported that Maoming, China’s largest tilapia production base, exported 59,000 tons of tilapia from January to May this year, marking a year-on-year surge of 56.4% with export revenue hitting 800 million RMB.

Calculated from these statistics, the average export unit price stands at roughly 6.78 RMB per jin. Based on a 36% fillet yield rate for tilapia, the equivalent raw fish price drops to merely 2.44 RMB per jin. Although a portion of exported goods are whole frozen tilapia with an approximate 85% processing yield, pond-gate prices paint a grim picture: tilapia prices have lingered at rock-bottom levels throughout January–May with sustained losses for farmers. Since the Spring Festival, the highest pond price only hovered around 3.7 RMB per jin. It is clear that product profit margins have collapsed drastically. Worse still, even amid such bleak fundamentals, May’s single-month export volume jumped 82.6% year-on-year, and raw fish prices slid a further 0.1–0.2 RMB per jin in early June.

A comparison of data over the past two years highlights the worsening trend:

·         2024: Maoming exported around 106,000 tons of tilapia worth 2.44 billion RMB, averaging 23,000 RMB per ton.

·         2025: Exports rose to 117,000 tons valued at 2.08 billion RMB, with the average price falling to 18,000 RMB per ton.

·         January–May 2026: The average export price has tumbled to just 14,000 RMB per ton.

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Rising export volumes paired with slumping prices and increasingly cheapened products have long plagued the domestic tilapia sector. The China Tilapia Supply and Demand Report issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs confirms that China’s 2025 tilapia exports followed the pattern of “higher volume, lower revenue, falling prices”: full-year shipment volume climbed 9.38%, yet total export value declined by 11.88%.

In early June, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) alleged that 60 economies including China have forced labor issues and unveiled plans to impose additional tariffs.

This move will undoubtedly deliver a severe blow to China’s tilapia exports. While the USTR also proposed extra tariffs on Vietnamese pangasius, multiple headwinds weigh heavily on China’s tilapia industry this year: fry stocking volumes plunged by roughly 50% in the first half, mass disease outbreaks are expected during the hot July–September season, domestic processors carry bloated inventories, and major uncertainties loom over international traders and distributors. Combined, these factors point to a pessimistic outlook for export orders for the remainder of the year.

It is important to note that Maoming, hailed as China’s “Tilapia Capital,” boasts a domestically leading industrial ecosystem. Beyond its top-tier output scale, the city has built a complete industrial chain covering fry breeding all the way to end-consumer dining tables, with the full-chain output value exceeding 10 billion RMB, making it a flagship representative of China’s aquaculture industry. Even so, as China’s highest-volume exported fish product, tilapia cannot evade multifaceted challenges.

An industry insider once shared a photo taken in a U.S. supermarket on WeChat: retail tilapia laid out on crushed ice featured uneven sizes, dull skin color and even rotted eyeballs, yet was priced at USD 6.99 per pound (equivalent to over 52 RMB per jin). The label prominently marked “Idaho Farm-Raised.” For tilapia producers, persistent hurdles will continue to emerge from end-consumer markets, rival producing regions and ever-shifting trade policies.

Pls contact us for tilapia orders: export@blueseafishery.cn 

Blue Sea Fishery Co., Ltd. 

www.blueseafishery.cn 

export@blueseafishery.cn 

wechat: DORIS85789

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