Tilapia Prices Stabilize After Decline; U.S. Orders Stall, Farmers Hold Back Stocks Amid Uncertainty

In the 32nd week of 2025 (August 4–10), after over a month of continuous decline, the pond-side prices of Chinese tilapia finally showed signs of stabilizing at the end of the harvest season. Although prices in some major producing regions rebounded slightly, demand in the U.S. market remains sluggish, with exporters widely reporting significant difficulties in securing order momentum.

Data shows that the ex-factory price of 500–800g tilapia in Guangdong rose slightly by 0.1 yuan/kg this week, marking the first increase since the 22nd week. Hainan and Guangxi saw more notable gains, with prices up by 0.2 yuan/kg. Industry insiders generally believe that large processing plants have proactively raised purchase prices, setting a short-term "price floor" for the market to some extent.

However, even this slight price rebound is insufficient to cover the costs of most farmers. A Hainan-based enterprise leader noted, "The fish collection season has basically ended, and fish supplies are gradually decreasing, but prices have not truly recovered." He added that while tight short-term supply may support price stability, the prolonged downturn in the U.S. market limits the overall room for recovery.

In the U.S., as of the 31st week, the wholesale price of Chinese frozen tilapia fillets fell by $0.05 per pound, continuing the correction trend of previous weeks. Despite lower quotes from the origin, U.S. buyers remain on the sidelines due to high inventories and a weak retail market, with no signs of large-scale restocking.

A processing plant manager in Guangdong stated that farmers are generally reluctant to sell fish at a loss, further tightening raw material supplies. "We are actively contacting U.S. clients, but without trade certainty or price advantages, their willingness to place orders is extremely low," he emphasized.

Regarding China-U.S. trade, although previous negotiations in Sweden extended the 90-day tariff buffer period, no substantive results were achieved. The industry widely predicts that further tariff reductions are unlikely in the short term. Multiple insiders noted that the current 55% tariff barely allows the industry to maintain export operations, but relying on this foundation to restore growth is unrealistic.

Currently, Chinese processors are making efforts to boost shipments. However, due to high cold chain inventories in the U.S. and slow demand release, some strategies have had limited effects. Industry sources revealed that many enterprises are attempting to shift part of their products to alternative markets such as the Middle East and Africa, but the scale and profitability of these markets cannot compare with U.S. orders.

Overall, tilapia prices have temporarily stabilized in major producing regions after a sharp decline, but confidence among farmers remains low, and the export market has not seen substantial improvement. As the fish collection season draws to a close and raw materials become scarcer, prices may see slight short-term rebounds. However, if the U.S. market remains "silent," the tilapia industry will continue to face structural pressures.

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Blue Sea Fishery Co., Ltd.

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E-mail: sales@blueseafishery.cn

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