Trump's 50% tariff hike hits Brazil's tilapia trade, intensifying volatility in the global tilapia export market!

U.S. leader Donald Trump announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported goods from Brazil starting August 1st. This policy will directly affect Brazil's seafood exports to the United States, particularly tilapia, red snapper, and spiny lobster, exacerbating changes in the global aquatic product trade pattern.

Brazil is the 19th largest seafood supplier to the United States. In 2024, it exported 39,188 tons of seafood to the U.S., valued at $231.9 million, including 10,119 tons of tilapia ($51.1 million), 4,742 tons of red snapper ($42.1 million), and 827 tons of spiny lobster ($34.1 million). In an open letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump accused Brazil of "unfair trade policies" and threatened to further raise tariffs if Brazil retaliates. However, the U.S. actually has a trade surplus of $7.4 billion with Brazil, and this move is regarded by the market as an extension of political games.

Affected by tariffs and seasonal factors, the price of Brazilian tilapia has fallen, and exports have declined in the short term. In the West Paraná region, the price dropped to 7.37 reais (approximately $1.3) per kilogram; in the Great Lakes region, it decreased to 8.05 reais per kilogram; and in the North Paraná region, it fell to 8.59 reais per kilogram.

Brazil's tilapia exports in June fell for the third consecutive month to 1,288 tons, a 9.3% month-on-month decrease. However, the cumulative exports in the first half of 2025 still increased by 40.2% year-on-year, indicating that international demand remains strong.

Trump's tariff policy may reshape the global tilapia trade pattern: China's tilapia industry is under pressure - the U.S. previously imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese tilapia, leading to a 50%-70% plunge in exports for some enterprises. Vietnam and Indonesia are seizing the market: Vietnam's tilapia exports surged by 138% in 2024, and Indonesia's output reached 1.61 million tons, closely following China. Brazil may turn to other markets: if the U.S. market is hindered, Brazil is likely to increase exports to the European Union and Asia.

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