China's annual tilapia output ranges from 1.7 million to 1.8 million tons (some analyses indicate that China's tilapia output may reach 1.9 million tons in 2024), accounting for 30% of the global total output. Relying on the advantages of a large-scale production system and a complete industrial chain covering breeding, aquaculture, processing, and logistics, China has long occupied a dominant position in the global tilapia industry landscape.

However, this "fortune - bringing fish" that once achieved leapfrog development by virtue of the east wind of globalization is now facing double pressure. On the one hand, there are continuous fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies towards China. On the other hand, the rapidly emerging tilapia producing areas in Southeast Asia and Latin America (hereinafter referred to as "competitive producing areas") have launched a full - industrial - chain pursuit with policy support and cost advantages.

A business director exclaims: Judging from the situation that domestic tilapia enterprises are accelerating their outward transfer and American customers are placing orders, the U.S. tariff stick has made the market competition between competitive producing areas and Chinese tilapia come at least several years earlier.

Recently, reporters from Southern Rural News found during their visits to Maoming and Yangjiang that the orders from the U.S. market received by tilapia processing enterprises have decreased significantly. Yang Yaqiang, the chairman of Global Aquatic Products, told the reporter that although the policy of suspending the additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China will end on August 12, it takes more than 20 days for tilapia products to go from the factory to enter the U.S. customs. "In the case of unclear tariff policies in the future, trade with the U.S. will be unsustainable."

The United States is the world's largest consumer of tilapia and also the largest single export market for China's tilapia. Yangjiang Quangu Food Co., Ltd. relies on the U.S. market for 70% - 80% of its products. Li Bing, the deputy general manager of the company, introduced that in April, the high tariff of 150% made the company's tilapia production lines in a state of stagnation most of the time.

The industry generally believes that the U.S. market is a profit highland for tilapia. Li Bing told the reporter that the profit of alternative markets such as Mexico is only 30% - 40% of that of the U.S. market. Xinzhou Seafood Co., Ltd. in Maoming has gone through years of structural adjustment, and its business in the U.S. has dropped to 8% of its share, but this part of the business can affect 12% of its output value. Li Qiang, the deputy general manager of the company, said that the order price in the newly developed Mexican market is only 65% of that in the U.S. market.

The price of tilapia has been sensitive and fragile in recent years, since the first tilapia tariff war in 2018, the price fluctuation of Chinese tilapia in the international market has begun to increase.

25% of China's tilapia is sold to the United States, with a volume of 450,000 tons. Therefore, the suppression of Chinese tilapia products by the U.S. market can easily lead to an oversupply of tilapia products worldwide. Such circumstances, tilapia sellers around the world are watching and expecting to promote further price reductions.

If the U.S. tariff "stick" is the cause of the "sensitivity" and "fragility" of tilapia prices, then the unlimited "involution" on the production side is constantly "testing the straw under the camel's crotch".

Many enterprises even accept orders at a loss or without making a profit. Li Qiang analyzed for the reporter why the involution continues to intensify when the industry is in a downturn. He pointed out that as long as the enterprise does not go bankrupt, costs such as labor and equipment exist. Only with orders can part of these costs be covered; without orders, the loss will be greater. "Especially the labor cost. With a scale of 800 people, the monthly labor cost is at least 4 million yuan."

If you don't do it, there are plenty of people who will. Now the competition is fierce. Everyone is trying to survive, stabilize the supply and channels, and wait for the situation to improve. It's also a way when there's no other way."

Some analyses point out that the increasing "fragility" of China's tilapia prices is not only affected by the U.S. tariff crackdown but also due to the continuous rise of competitive producing areas. Chinese tilapia is still the world's number one and plays a role in leading prices. However, due to the continuous investment in the tilapia industry by countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, the stability of China's market prices has been frequently disrupted.

Going back to April 17, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (hereinafter referred to as the Vietnam Export Association) jointly with the Fisheries and Fisheries Supervision Bureau of the Department of Agriculture and Environment of Can Tho City held a seminar on "Solutions for Organizing Tilapia Production and Export in 2025". The meeting clearly positioned tilapia as one of the core products of the export strategy in the next stage.

At that time, the China - U.S. trade war was in full swing, and the U.S. tariff on tilapia exports to China reached 150%. Domestic sales of tilapia to the U.S. stagnated, and the farm gate price of tilapia over 1 jin (0.5 kg) also fell to a low of 3.6 yuan per jin. Nguyen Huai Nan, the secretary - general, pointed out that the United States is one of the world's major tilapia consumer markets. Faced with the escalating China - U.S. trade frictions, if Chinese tilapia is forced to switch to domestic sales or other markets due to high tariffs, Vietnam will take the initiative to fill the gap in the European and American markets.

It is worth noting that Vietnam is only one of the many competitive tilapia producing areas. As a supplier of tilapia we believe that the impact of the tilapia industry in Indonesia and Brazil may be greater. Indonesia now has a large volume and has advantages such as a good breeding environment and low labor costs. Brazil is not only close to the United States but also has grown very rapidly in recent years.

Indonesia's annual tilapia output has ranked second in the world for many years. Some institutions estimate that Indonesia's tilapia output will reach 1.61 million tons in 2024, and there is a trend of narrowing the gap with China. This is due to the high attention paid by the Indonesian government to the development of the tilapia industry. In recent years, the country has introduced a series of policy measures including providing financial subsidies, optimizing the industrial chain, and strengthening international cooperation.

According to data from the Brazilian Aquaculture Association, in 2024, Brazil's tilapia output reached 662,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. After the Brazilian government reached negotiations with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the United States suspended the mandatory requirement for international health certificates for its fish. Brazil's tilapia exports achieved rapid growth, rising from the fourth largest supplier of fish fillets to the second in 2024.

Rapidly emerging tilapia producing areas such as India, Brazil, and Indonesia have seized 10% - 15% of the market share of Global Aquatic Products.

Chen Qi, the president of the Maoming Tilapia Industry Association, told the reporter that due to the competition from the rapidly emerging tilapia producing areas such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil, domestic orders for two - processed (viscera and scale removed) tilapia products have lost more than 80%. compared with Brazil, the landed price of China's two - processed tilapia products entering the U.S. market is 0.4 dollars per pound higher. "The price advantage is gone." We are worried that with the continuous tariff war and the support of investment promotion policies in competitive producing areas, more and more domestic factories will transfer outward. "At that time, the advantages brought by China's complete tilapia industrial chain will no longer exist."

"This is a fortune - bringing fish for us in more than 30 years. We can't be knocked down just like that." Chen Qi is full of confidence in the tilapia industry.

For a long time, the perfect tilapia industrial chain has been a "comparative advantage" that domestic tilapia industry practitioners are proud of. The current Chinese tilapia industry has a strong industrial foundation, with the industrial chain covering the whole process from seedlings, breeding, animal protection, processing, sales to research and development, and has a relatively perfect market sales network. Its industrial status is difficult to shake in a short time.

Regarding whether the domestic tilapia industry will transfer to competitive producing areas on a large scale, at present, all links in the industrial chain are closely connected, and a single move affects the whole body. If the industry is transferred, the cost of partial transfer may be higher.

Although we are full of worries about the impact of competitive tilapia producing areas, it still shows strong confidence in the irreplaceability of some domestic tilapia processed products. in terms of both technology and price, the tilapia fillet products from China have strong competitiveness. "Technically, the quality of tilapia fillet products in Vietnam and Brazil is far inferior to that of China; in terms of price, due to the complete domestic industrial chain, by - products such as fish heads and bones can also be utilized, so the product cost will be lower."

"Encountering some setbacks is beneficial to standardizing the industry to a certain extent.” a deputy to the Provincial People's Congress and the director of the Maoming Maonan Sangao Tilapia Breeding Farm, said bluntly. The tariff issue has exposed a series of problems in tilapia: over - reliance on a single market, homogeneous competition, lack of diversified product forms, and insufficient brand building of tilapia...

In the view of Wang xiao, an associate professor at the Ocean College of Shandong University, the huge domestic market is the real confidence of the tilapia industry.

According to data provided by the Maoming Tilapia Industry Association, from 2015 to 2024, the proportion of domestic sales of tilapia in Maoming increased by 25%. Under the shadow of uncertainty in U.S. tariffs on China, Maoming tilapia enterprises are actively seeking domestic sales channels. We started looking for domestic sales channels from the second half of last year. From the end of last year to now, the proportion of our domestic sales has increased from 10% to 20%.

Driven by the development of the domestic prepared dishes industry, Global Aquatic Products has been laying out prepared dishes since 2018 and has specially created the "Texianla" brand. In recent years, it has launched various dishes such as sauerkraut fish fillets, spicy grilled fish, fish floss, pan - fried fish steaks, sauce - free crispy snapper fillets, and spicy fish skin. driven by prepared dishes, the proportion of domestic sales of Global Aquatic Products' tilapia products has increased to 30% - 35%.