On June 24, during a visit to Maoming, we found that the ex-farm price of tilapia over 1 jin (500g) had dropped to 3.9 yuan per jin, falling below 4 yuan per jin.

It is understood that the breeding cost of tilapia over 1 jin (500g) is about 4 yuan per jin. The current ex-farm price means that most farmers will sell at breakeven or even at a loss

In early May, as Sino-US trade negotiations proceeded smoothly, the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement was signed, and the US policy to suspend additional tariffs officially came into effect on May 14, the ex-farm price of tilapia over 1 jin (500g) in Maoming gradually rose from 3.6 yuan per jin in mid-April (the trough period after the tariff war) to 4.4 yuan per jin on May 17, a span of less than one month.

It is understood that the ex-farm price of tilapia over 1 jin was 4.6 yuan per jin before the Sino-US tariff war.

"The price of 4.4 yuan per jin only lasted about a week," a tilapia purchasing intermediary in Maoming, told a reporter. At the end of May, tilapia prices began to decline. After June, the ex-farm purchase price hovered between 4.1 and 4.2 yuan per jin. Since last week, it started to drop again until it fell to 3.9 yuan per jin.

The decline in tilapia prices is related to the upcoming expiration of the suspension policy on additional tariffs between China and the U.S. Although the policy is not set to terminate until August 12, it takes more than 20 days for tilapia products to go from the factory to U.S. customs. Heads of tilapia processing enterprises have stated that orders for the U.S. can only be accepted until the end of June.

The United States is the largest single export market for Chinese tilapia, accounting for about 25% of the country's total export volume, and also brings the highest profits. With a significant reduction in tilapia orders from the U.S., even without considering the indirect impact of U.S. tariffs on order volumes and prices in other tilapia markets, the price of tilapia raw materials will be greatly suppressed.

The supply-demand relationship has also directly influenced the price trend of tilapia. During an interview in tilapia producing areas in May, reporters heard the bold statement "processors will purchase as much as available" in more than one place. This was related to the insufficient stock in ponds and processors stepping up production for U.S. orders.

2024 was called "the best year in the past five years" for the tilapia industry. In winter, a large quantity of tilapia over 1 jin (500g) was sold, while fry stocked at the end of the year began to grow rapidly only after the average water temperature exceeded 20°C in April. Tilapia fry stocked from November to December last year are now in the harvesting period. "At that time, prices were good, so naturally fishermen did not hold back on stocking quantity.

It is estimated that the purchase price of tilapia over 1 jin by factories would further decrease by 0.05 yuan per jin by the end of June.  

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