Norwegian Mackerel Prices to Soar 20%-30%, Asian Markets Face Supply Chain Challenges!
Affected by quota reduction, tight inventory and exchange rate fluctuations, the price of Norwegian Atlantic mackerel is expected to further rise by 20%-30% in the 2025-2026 fishing season, and may even exceed the historical high set last year. This trend will have a significant impact on the seafood consumption pattern in major Asian import markets, especially South Korea, China and Japan.
At a forum held by the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) in Seoul on June 9, Hong Yong-seok, representative of South Korea's Hanwei Shipping Company, said: "Norwegian processors generally expect mackerel prices to rise by 20%-30% in the new season." This forecast was confirmed by Norwegian local processors, who revealed to industry media that raw material shortages combined with the appreciation of the Norwegian krone (from 11.4 krone/US dollar last year to about 10 krone) are squeezing profit margins doubly, forcing terminal prices to rise.
The pressure on the supply side is particularly severe. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recommended in September 2024 to cut the total fishing quota for Northeast Atlantic mackerel in 2025 by 22% to 577,000 tons, and the quota for 2026 may be further tightened. At the same time, inventories in processing countries such as Vietnam and China are expected to be exhausted by October, and a temporary supply gap may occur during the transition between the old and new seasons.
Labor shortages are pushing South Korea to accelerate its shift to imported prefabricated fish fillets - Norway's mackerel fillet imports reached 8,500 tons in 2024, and the processing link has been relocated to lower-cost countries such as Vietnam, China and Indonesia. NSC research shows that frozen fillets account for 55% of Norwegian mackerel products sold in South Korea's retail sector, and ready-to-eat products account for 10%, reflecting the trend of convenient consumption.
The growth of the Chinese market is also remarkable. Between 2020 and 2024, the consumption of Atlantic mackerel surged by 35% to 12,000 tons, and the demand for pan-fried and ready-to-cook products among young groups has become the main driving force. Japan, on the other hand, shows a "refined" trend, with 30%-35% of retail products being boneless, and salt-baked fish fillets and small-packaged "chunks" widely distributed through convenience stores.
Analysts point out that under the dual effect of tight quotas and consumption upgrading, the high price of Norwegian mackerel may become the norm, and Asian importers need to cope with cost pressure through diversified procurement and product innovation.
