Tilapia: Signs of Stabilization Emerge, but Market Conditions Remain Uncertain

After two consecutive months of price declines, tilapia prices have finally shown signs of stabilizing. Prices in some producing areas have edged up slightly, but overall, tilapia market conditions remain unstable.

July-August marks the peak season for new tilapia fish to hit the market, resulting in ample supply. Most stocked tilapia fish are sized between 0.3-0.5 kg, and subsequent market supply pressure remains high. Domestic consumer demand is sluggish, with limited demand from tilapia processors for large-sized tilapia fish, while international market demand fluctuates significantly due to tariff policy impacts.

Latest updates from major producing areas:
In Maoming, Guangdong, market circulation has been relatively low recently due to price pressures from tilapia fillet factories, leading to a sluggish market. In Maoming and Zhanjiang, the purchase price for tilapia sized 0.3-0.5 kg is 2.65 yuan/kg; for fish over 0.5 kg, prices range from 3.65-3.75 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan from last week; and for fish over 0.75 kg shipped by water tankers, prices are 4.4-4.5 yuan/kg. In Yangjiang, prices for 0.5 kg-sized fish are 3.4-3.5 yuan/kg, up 0.1-0.2 yuan. In Yunfu, prices for fish over 0.5 kg stand at 3.5 yuan/kg.

Prices in Wenchang, Hainan, remain stable: the tilapia factory price for 0.3-0.5 kg fish is currently 2.7 yuan/kg, and the purchase price for 0.5-0.8 kg fish is 3.9-4 yuan/kg. In Beihai, Guangxi, prices for 0.3-0.5 kg tilapia are 2.9 yuan/kg; for fish over 0.5 kg, 3.6-3.7 yuan/kg; and for fish over 0.6 kg shipped by water tankers, 4.5 yuan/kg. In Yunnan, tilapia prices for 0.6 kg-sized fish are 4.5-4.6 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan from last week.

Currently, tilapia fish harvesting season has largely ended, and tilapia fish sources are gradually decreasing. Overall prices have edged up slightly or remained stable but have not truly rebounded. Even with minor price recoveries, they are still insufficient to cover costs for most tilapia farmers. While tight short-term supply supports market conditions, the continued sluggishness of the U.S. market limits the room for overall price recovery.

According to the latest news today, the China-U.S. tariff suspension period has been extended by another 90 days, with trade negotiations advancing:
China and the U.S. reached another agreement on August 12, 2025, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days (until mid-November), retaining only a 10% tariff.

With eased tariffs, tilapia orders from the U.S. market are expected to partially return. In April this year, JD Supermarket reduced tilapia prices to 33 yuan for 4 fish (net weight 1.4 kg) through a "export-to-domestic sales" subsidy program, which is expected to drive a 6-fold increase in online sales. Coupled with stockpiling demand for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, domestic circulation of fresh tilapia fish is expected to increase in September, supporting a rise in pond prices.

Key Milestones and Recommendations

August-September: Seize the tariff window to accelerate tilapia fish sales. Prioritize selling tilapia fish over 0.5 kg, leveraging tilapia processors' stockpiling demand to secure premium prices, while controlling the inventory of 0.3-0.5 kg fish to no more than 30%. Reference JD's "10 billion agricultural subsidy" model to supply supermarkets in the Greater Bay Area directly through e-commerce platforms, shortening circulation chains to boost profit margins.

October-November: Monitor policy renewal and peak consumption seasons. If tariff policies are extended, moderately stockpile large-sized tilapia fish to await peak export orders; if policies change, quickly shift focus to domestic wholesale markets. Utilize platforms such as pre-made food expos to connect with catering channels—for example, Maonan District achieved daily sales of 20 tons by supplying directly to renowned restaurants in Shunde, with a 25% premium rate.

In the short term, tilapia prices may remain "slightly rising and stable," but profitability will still be under pressure. Medium-term trends depend heavily on China-U.S. tariff policies and domestic supply digestion progress. If tariff policies remain loose and domestic sales gradually pick up, tilapia prices are expected to recover steadily; otherwise, they will continue to fluctuate at low levels.

It is recommended that tilapia farmers closely track tariff policy trends in November to maximize returns during the policy dividend period. Flexibly adjust production and sales strategies, reasonably control inventory, prioritize supplying domestic market demand, and strengthen breeding management to reduce costs of tilapia.

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